Vous pouvez trouver l’ensemble des contributions d'Amin Elsaleh sur le site academia à l’adresse:

https://independent.academia.edu/AminElsaleh

“Sikes Picot 2:  The New Wars Order”

By Imad F. Abdullah, October 15, 2019

As we witness a major reshuffling of coalitions and allegiances in Syria and especially along the Syria - Turkey border after President Trump changed course by pulling out from some positions along the Turkish border, it is timely to reconsider the concept of military superiority and how effective it is in today’s world, and to what extent this impacts the next Sykes-Picot.

War strengthens nationalism among the winners. In this age of Globalization, international commerce and integrated economies, Nationalism may not be a desired outcome. Future wars pose new challenges and the “New Wars Order” is imposing itself on all powers and the reaction to any action no longer follows prescribed norms. It's unimaginable to think of a war between the big powers nowadays for there is nowhere to hide.

Today there is no need for huge conventional armies except for local skirmishes and regime self-preservation but it does not mean defense will no longer be important. The big powers can inflict heavy damage which is the deterrent, and superior power allows imposing sanctions which become the enforcer. In the last few years this may have worked with small countries that have no leverage such as Libya and Iraq but it has not worked with N Korea, Venezuela, Syria, China and Russia, and it remains in question with Iran. It also did not work with the Palestinians as their patriotism trumped deprivation.

With its vastly superior force, the issue for the United States is not whether it can win, but it is how much damage it is willing to inflict and how much it could sustain which becomes a negative in the eyes of the world, especially as it relates to the performance of specific arms and their future sales and the damage sustained by US allies before ending the conflict.

Major issues confront The Middle East today: the Yemen war, Iran facing the tide of continued sanctions, the downing of the US drone plane over Iran, the bombing of Aramco oil installations, and the hostage taking of British and Iranian oil tankers.  Tensions are extremely high and the situation is quite volatile. For some this is a time for winning or losing and for others this is an opportunity to resolve long standing conflicts

The recent Drones attack on Aramco created a major change in context for the world and exposed the limits of power. It seems unfathomable that big powers do not know where it came from, but they are claiming uncertainty so far because they are not intent on going to war. In retrospect, the Houthis could have purchased the drones from Iran, picked them up by boat from Iranian shores somewhere in the Persian Gulf on the premise they are taking them to Yemen. Once offshore, the drones were launched by the Houthis, reaching their destination in minutes due to the very short distance (the Gulf is about 150 miles wide), and with not enough time for Saudi defenses to intercept them. Iran may have sold the drones but as with arms sales, it does not need to know how and where the arms are used and can deny involvement as such although the boat could have been conceivably still within Iranian territorial waters.

Going to war to defend Saudi Arabia would have been a very costly proposition. Since Democrats already accuse President Trump of being erratic, he exercised restraint as any war action resulting in the death of US soldiers will heavily impact his legacy although there was news about counter cyber-attacks on some Iranian facilities as a response. American Oil was offered to needy countries and American technology provided repairs. War is not needed after all although the US keeps a large fleet in the Gulf with the overhead paid for by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States. If a war was contemplated the fleet would have been moved to the base at Diego Garcia in The Indian Ocean rather than be so vulnerable in the Gulf

During his campaign in 2016 President Trump wanted to have a basic understanding with Russia and China to collectively maintain a peaceful world with open trade and commerce, and to have a mutual resolution of issues related to the imbalance of trade with China. The concern of the Deep State in the US and which was built on years of suspicions and doubts about good intentions of other major powers prevailed and President Trump changed course. In this new world, the Deep States everywhere are confronting the election rhetoric of presidential candidates.

As the 2020 presidential election in the USA approaches, President Trump may not be willing at this late stage to rock the international scene and will concentrate on winning and on securing Congressional majorities. Also in 2019 there are local elections in many states and the outcome has significant bearing on Trump’s re-election. What appears to many as an inconsistent Trump does not reflect the reality of the large support he has inside the US, hence the possibility of winning another four years.

Though the decision by President Trump to move some US forces away from the Turkish border baffled many, it looks to be a well calculated approach. The plan seems to have Turkey take over M 4, the major highway connecting northern Syria from Hassaka and Mosul in Iraq to the East to Aleppo in the West and the Mediterranean. The US wants Turkey, a NATO ally to control it while the US controls the southern highway from Bagdad to Damascus by staying in Al-Tanf on the Jordan border. This cuts off supply lines from the East to Syria and Lebanon and cuts China’s hope for an easy route to The Mediterranean Sea.

Regardless of worldwide rejection, NATO Member Turkey will control a 30 kilometers strip all along the northern Syrian border where the future Nabucco pipelines can be laid, carrying oil from the fields in Iraq and Syria and the Qatar Gas to stem the influence of Russian gas on Europe. Qatar pipelines can connect easily to Mosul through Iraq or possibly Iran. The super highway M 4 will carry all materials and services to pumping stations all along the route to the Mediterranean.

Some European countries expressed indignation making the relation between Turkey and NATO  tenuous at best since France which already has bases in Syria, and others in NATO think Turkey will control substantial revenues from the lines and could bypass Greece. Furthermore they see a Turkey with a very strong military and would want it downsized by carving a Kurdish State out of Turkish territory, with the ultimate goal of securing the Oil in any new Kurdish entity directly and without Turkey commanding a share

President Erdogan is facing his own legacy: historically fear of future retributions and world court prosecution has forced leaders to cling to posts for as long as possible and later passing powers to their cronies to protect themselves. Major challenges are confronting him such as Turkish soldiers getting killed in Syria, the Turkish economy downward spiral, and a vulnerable infrastructure which can turn public against him in case of interruption.

Erdogan’s threat to Europe to send them his Syrian refugees is not easily feasible as there are too many border barriers and it is too costly and inhumane and could heavily backfire. His dreams of an expanded Ottoman Empire run counter to history as the Ottomans could not win against the entrenched Arabic Language after 500 years of rule and will not succeed today.

For the Kurds who are seeking a separate country, they will have to wait for a different context. Meanwhile, those guarding jails of former ISIS fighters will flee ahead of Turkish advancement and the jails could be left at the mercy of Turkey, which supports the Islamic Brotherhood against the Saudi backed Wahabi Sect of Islam which most ISIS fighters belong to. This does not bode well for Israel since the Islamic Brotherhood does not recognize any borders and considers an Islamic State as the ultimate entity across all borders. Turkey and Israel are going to face-off if and when this new crossroad is reached.

Saudi Arabia is facing many of the challenges described above in addition to its involvement in a protracted war in Yemen. There is strife inside the Saudi Monarchy and many within are not in support of the current direction. The recent killings of the personal guards of king Salman and the anniversary of the death of Journalist Khashoggi at the Saudi Embassy in Turkey remain quite disturbing.

For Saudi Arabia there is a very high cost for the presence of US forces and naval ships, and it has to contend with the growing cost of infrastructure and its maintenance due to the population growth and the constantly growing foreign nationals who serve there. With an abundance of oil worldwide the price is low and budget deficits loom at the horizon.

The vulnerability of Saudi Arabia in any war is becoming apparent, especially as they rely heavily on water desalination plants which must be considered prime targets in any war.  It is too early to think of what the future holds for ten or twenty years out especially in case of unrest against the Al-Saud family.

For now Syria is concentrating on maintaining stability in the areas under its control and wants to project responsibility and a functioning country. The Euphrates river is a costly barrier to cross in order to stem the flow of Turkish forces although the Syrian army can get to some parts of Syria’s northern border to shore up the local population. It is a waiting game, slowly rebuilding while maintaining control and continued vigilance at a very high price while Russia and Iran remain supportive.

In twenty or thirty years Syria’s increasing population will reclaim destroyed areas and will rebuild them much like Europe did. Expect large public squares and urban parks where there was total destruction with possibly underground parking. Rebuilt German cities provide a promising example.

Jordan is not in control of events surrounding its borders and relies heavily on its good relations and open door policy to all neighbors. Jordan understands well that any US administration will follow previous administrations in their total support to Israel and the implementation of long-term US policy. President Trump accelerated the promise to recognize Jerusalem and added unilaterally the Golan Heights while continuing the process of tighter restrictions and funding to all parties. Such funds may have been doled for a high acquiescence price by previous administrations and had it been Hillary Clinton as President instead of Trump, the situation would not have been much different

If President Trump is reelected, he could exercise relatively wider power and  Jordan will have a large role as a key player between Israel and The Palestinians and could assist in resolving the Syrian refugee situation within its northern borders, especially as Israel trusts the support of President Trump. Jordan will be the channel for the Palestinians as they need to become part of the negotiations. Without the Palestinians on board it is difficult to advance the process although advancing peace may not be desired by all parties due to different agendas.

For President Trump, no American blood will be shed for others and Israel may be under advice not to start any action that would negatively affect his plans. The US calculations are on track since Israel perceives President Trump as their strongest ally

Israel is carefully following developments in the region and monitors the Gaza uprising to keep it at low intensity in the eyes of the world, and is bound to be watching all who have effective drones and missiles around her. Whoever becomes the new Prime Minister will not change the country’s course drastically as Israel may not be in a rush but the situation poses severe dangers and may produce a "savage war" where and when the suicidal takes over.

The Israeli society is quite divided and many are in the same predicament as Palestinians: none can approve anything out of fear for their lives and President Trump understands well that Israeli intransigence may prevent any deal. 

As years pass, Israel will have to contend with the Palestinian population explosion not only inside but throughout the Diaspora since Israel will be fighting several generations for the foreseeable future. Israel is weighing all these outcomes and whether it can sustain its dominance and whether Israelis will be willing to accept such risks. The coastal residents are a lot less prone to advocate war than the inland settlers and the country could face its own internal strife with divided halves.

Israel’s existence has been based on an assumed biblical right well over 2,000 years old and as such it fits those who believe it but runs counter to those who do not accept it. If there is a war no country in the Middle East will escape and with new war technologies and sophisticated drones at very low cost, and biological and other highly destructive methods, heavy damage can be expected. This may help speed an accommodation on Palestine.

The long-term situation does not favor the continued dominance of Israel. While it holds the upper hand, it can diffuse the situation by acknowledging the injustice and by offering reparations and restitutions to the Palestinians and offering a fair resolution. Germany has paid billions to the relatives of Jews who perished in the Holocaust and Israel needs to spearhead a world effort to compensate Palestinians.

Palestinians can do a lot more to inform the world of their plight. Looking forward, The US population demographics are changing and Spanish origin citizens will become majority in few decades, and they have neither allegiance nor guilt toward Israel.  There is a large information gap since there are very few English language channels by Palestinians, and for that matter practically none in Turkish or Persian or Hebrew to reach and present different views, and especially to the new generation of Arab Americans and European and Latin American Arabs who are not fluent in Arabic and cannot watch news on existing Arabic Channels.

Although Israel instituted laws to circumvent legal claims, many Diaspora Palestinians in due course will claim rights to their property inside Israel in international courts and including potential lost rents and income which balances demands for unpaid property taxes and penalties.

It is best for Israel to engage in resolving the stalemate now rather than pass this volatile situation to its next generations. A new dialogue based on realities and a frank assessment by all sides can help bridge gaps, and maybe the new promised dawn of peace can emerge again.

There is a lot of talk nowadays whether a two-state solution is still viable especially considering that the rift between the two Palestinian entities, the West Bank and Gaza, continues to await a reasonable agreement. For Palestinians in general, the broad guidelines are not in dispute and form a Main Framework with specific covenants such as The Right of Return, East Jerusalem as Capital, coordinated Policy, mutual defense, and Self Determination. The future Palestinian State, whether it is one or two entities (Gaza and West Bank connected by a dedicated corridor) would be one State.

The wait-and-see approach continues to reduce the West Bank piece by piece as Israel continues to expand into West Bank areas. Maybe the reasonable leaders among the conflicting parties can develop a new Business Plan, knowing that Israel is going to put roadblocks just like they did with Oslo, but the alternative is not sparking a lot of hope and can be detrimental to everyone.

A century ago, Sykes-Picot encompassed much of the region and left an imprint scarred by wars and upheavals and revolutions. Today there are big challenges due to population growth and the lack of enough economic development and due to the destruction and waste laid on a number of countries by the so-called Arab Spring. Iraq, Syria. Libya and Yemen need to mend, and Egypt and Sudan and Ethiopia need to agree on water rights as the gigantic dam on The Nile River in Ethiopia nears completion. There are bright promises in Algeria and Tunisia and Morocco, and maybe we’ll see an ending to the Syrian tragedy very soon.

All of us are a part of history while we watch history. Everyone needs to get involved to steer Mother Ship earth to more peaceful shores.

Imad F. Abdullah AIA, October 15, 2019

With missiles dropping on Israel Monday night and the retaliation that followed, it could have been War with no bounds. Being an unprecedented event, how was it limited and contained so quickly?

One can trace events with some visioning and get to some conclusions on how this was achieved:

After Israeli missiles killed Iranians in Syria a few weeks back, Iran made it clear it will retaliate. Iran wisely chose the timing to be after the inauguration of President Putin for a new term. Iran would have briefed Russia about the upcoming hit beforehand, but maybe only few days before the exact timing.

Containment would have started immediately to prevent a much wider conflict involving great powers. As the US would have been briefed, President Trump advanced the announcement about the US withdrawal from the Nuclear Agreement with Iran from May 12 to Monday May 7 at 2 pm, less than 12 hours before the hit and in what may be perceived as an intention to restrain Iran.

Earlier on Monday morning several high ranking Israeli military officials threatened to kill Assad and some suggested forcefully to assassinate him, a most unusual tactic in today's world. This was obviously a scare tactic to get Assad to hold back.

At the same time, Netanyahu asked and flew to Moscow to meet Putin the day after the inauguration and according to news reports he was not invited. He would have asked Russia to restrain Iran and if not, to get permission to hit deep but it looks like it wasn't granted.

The US and Russia must have made it clear to all parties they do not want a wider conflict and this must be contained to a very limited action, and is being allowed only to diffuse anger on both sides.

One would assume Russia cautioned against Israeli planes flying over Syria or hitting civilian targets. The same advice would have been given to Iran and the missiles on both sides hit only military targets.  Both sides claimed success of their mission but there is no third-party reporting from Satellites that blanket the area. No reporters yet on the scenes filming damage and no pictures, only reports by third parties here and there although it's been several days now.

The US media downplayed the events and did not report them until several hours after the international media aired the news. Maybe they were directly asked, and the news was timid with only few commentators doing analysis. The US public is not to be alarmed.

The price of Gold remained stable, Oil has been going up for a few weeks and maybe by some already in the know, but all the perennial talk about the vulnerability of the Arabian Gulf Region Petrochemical installations did not materialize nor did it effect the financial markets.

Both Israel and Iran now say they will go no further. Netanyahu cannot afford any kind of setback, and Iran needs to maintain world goodwill against the upcoming US sanctions.

The US did not want American Fighter planes to be hit by missiles, bad for future sales. Russia did not want a wider conflict as there would be no winners.

Lebanon just finished elections and remains quite precarious, no need to flare up the South. And as far as Turkey, NATO is not sure if Erdogan will oblige with falling currency and all the floating cards he juggles.

Out of a potentially disastrous situation comes the good news: if future conflicts can be contained so quickly and professionally, the world will be a much safer place.

I- Where to from “Sykes-Picot”

Imad F Abdullah, July 21, 2016

Years ago a friend of mine showed me a money coin minted in Jerusalem in 1915 with the inscription “Jerusalem, Syria” (in Arabic).

We all tend to give Sykes Picot a lot of importance since we lived its consequences. In reality it is a continuation of many such divisions that befell the Arab world and many other non-Arab countries for hundreds of years.

The future for the Middle East is yet to come but we can look at where the trends are. As a time frame the last five years are blip in the history of nations, Syria in particular. Peace will arrive at some time, and those who stayed in Syria will have a chance to benefit from the large asset base of Syria and its natural resources since the population has been thinned out considerably with migration and non-returning refugees. Historically this occurred after the Tatars invaded Syria several hundred years ago and thinned out the population. Otherwise Syria may have been similar to heavily overpopulated countries and all the problems of poverty and deprivation.

Syria is at a crossroads: Russia has been able to retain its place as a world power and is not wavering in its support of the regime, and the NATO/US alliance seems to be looking now at the next geographic hot spot, the China Sea and North Korea, and they seem to be content with the status quo and to let Syria find its way, knowing the damage has stalled Syria for a couple of decades.

Syria appears to not have enough destruction yet and the war will continue to be fed for now from the current different angles. A drastic action could be a targeted destruction of the current administration which would leave the country scrambling to fill the vacuum and the "Failed State Plan" gets accomplished.

Whether Syria gets divided or not, the long-term bodes well for continued collective unity of its people since small countries cannot survive well in a world dominated by large powers. Lebanon understood this well and still maintains its coherence though it could have been fragmented long ago.

With all the existing interconnected infrastructure and established land trade routes Syria will regroup and rework itself through its people alliances and ingenuity, although the scenario of the creation of a country for the Kurds assembled from parts of adjacent countries will have a large impact depending on who controls the oil and natural resources within.

Borders are lines in the sand and it is the people within who are the ultimate decision makers, and the logical choice is to remain a friendly neighbor. Europe after WW II reached that conclusion and reassembled itself and rebuilt and is back to competition but without destroying its neighborhood.

The Armenian tragedy is a clear example that the pain and suffering will take decades to become bearable, and it will always be center and at the forefront and much like the pain of all the wars of the area over the last 100 years.

From a historical perspective 400 years takes us back to the Ottoman Empire and the different periods of strength and weaknesses within depending on which ruler was in charge and how power was changed whether due to assassinations, normal transfer or Ottoman Palace upheavals.

Britain, France, Germany and Russia have always jockeyed for positions ever since Britain chased the Portuguese out of the Arabian Gulf. They always needed each other and at the same time attempted to gain more by giving trade-offs: Morocco and Algeria to France and later Syria and Lebanon, Sudan and Egypt to Britain followed later by Iraq and Palestine/Jordan.

They had substantial fights over the Suez Canal and who gets to build it, with foreign powers betrayals of Mohammad Ali in Egypt, Sharif Hussein and his tribulations with Al-Saud, and later his drive to get the Ottoman Empire out and the ultimate betrayal resulting in Sykes Picot. All along Germany and Russia had to be pacified and given other parts, and including Italy as it got Libya.

The United States became a major international player as a result of the two World Wars of the 20^th century, and had many confrontations with other powers over where their limits would be. The scenario continues today although it is now NATO and the US versus Russia and China.

In the last thirty years the power structure changed considerably since the nature of wars changed with the ability of small groups with technology and precision armament to inflict substantial damage. With the financial interest of large powers spread worldwide, wars become easier when they are conducted locally and by others, especially with funding available from third party source.

Regarding the uncertainties about foreign US Policy as it relates to the current presidential elections, the resistance from some Republicans to Trump and a lot of the "Chatter" projected by so-called experts reflects the inner struggle within the US policy makers.

The Establishment in the US, being the behind the scene military industrial complex and the entourage that supports those views in the media and keeps a blanket over it, are bound to have a specific agenda for US actions to be undertaken by the next president. They had the same over many decades as the US policy is planned for decades and in-coming presidents execute: President Bush 1st involvement in Iraq, Bill Clinton attempts at military interventions (Afghanistan and Sudan etc.) though not on the scale planned, Bush 43rd "Journey without cause" into Iraq + Afghanistan, and Obama's Arab Spring and the never ending Syria debacle.

Trump has mentioned several times his readiness to negotiate with other powers, and that is where the confrontation with the establishment is happening. They held up support through the Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and others initially to have time to bring him on board, but he may not be fully on board yet as we continue to hear media conservative voices against him and looking for a third candidate, and some even siding with Hillary.

The reason all this is taking place is because the US and the rest of the world powers are in a survival mode and have not finished the second World War with a clear winner. Most are in debt and have to compete even with their best allies to maintain their economies. Long term the "West Alliance" expects in the future a large conflict with China and Russia, and in this regard adopted a policy of creating "Failed States" in areas considered potential danger. As such the chain within the Arab World is on-going with Tunis, Libya, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and it seems Algeria and Egypt are still in the planning but success there has been elusive so far (Venezuela and Brazil have become already entangled internally). The building of fanatic fighters is also intended to act as a southern front down the line to stir Russia's fifteen million Moslems and a Western front against China.

Turkey was engaged as the frontline country to carry the plan, and yet Turkey's Erdogan has had many setbacks. If the Kurds end up with a slice to declare a country, his regime may collapse altogether and there could be a large evaporation of support among his present supporters. The reverberations and consequences of the coup last Saturday continue to unfold and the ultimate result will be a Turkey more concerned about its internal order rather than ventures at the periphery with unknown outcome. Everyone is watching.

The relations now between the US and Saudi is not at its best and there could be a more change and shuffling within the Saudi Royal family during the next US administration, and a clearer understanding that Oil is a worldwide asset to be administered and protected collectively and produced wisely to minimize price gyrations, with all what that would imply.

The "Entente" with Iran is intended to neutralize it for the next few years in case there is a large confrontation in the Far-East. The potential "fires" range from North Korea to Syria to Ukraine and the installation of a NATO Shield in Europe. All these are quite hot and N. Korea can become a live powder keg prompting attempts to neutralize it quickly. There is a large build-up now of fleets in the China Sea and a possible "check-mate" could be forthcoming next year or 2018.

If Hillary wins, the plan continues as already charted with no changes. It will take the Arab World decades to get back to some normality. If Trump wins, it is a different approach and will have more balance on using US Power and a better outcome for the US and the whole world.

Though Moslems tend to see a dark side to Trump, it may be the start of a serious dialogue about Islam and all religions and it can produce progress for all, and an open mind will alleviate much of the impact of retro movements and pre-cemented attitudes.

Much of the above has not been brought up in the US media or in interviews or by any of the supposed tough reporters asking the hard questions. It implies two possibilities, the first being ignorance and the second an insider knowledge but with a clear intent not to alert the US public and maintain foreign policy in the hands of the "Top Brass" of the various Establishment privy entities.

Those in the know can look at it as a necessary course to maintain US dominance for the next 50 to 100 years and in this perspective a few years of turmoil and the destruction of small countries is insignificant in their supposed big picture. Foreign Policy is becoming the bigger driver for powerful countries and their electorates may not appreciate that their local issues are not that important. Hidden in the Foreign Policy picture is what to do about the world “overpopulation” and whether Earth can sustain itself, a topic of serious thought that affects humanity worldwide.

For those who see that a different path based on building alliances and mutual friendships worldwide can be more productive, especially if a fair resolution of the Palestinian/Israeli problem takes place to diffuse it, the window is getting smaller and the voices are not given enough exposure. The apparent result of the present policies is a very unsafe world and with unexpected periodic disruptions all over, and a retro and backward movements unfit for the present stage of civilization, with women at the forefront of the oppressed populations. The world will somehow survive but it may be that we have seen the best of times in our lifetime.

Last century witnessed the demise of 170 million if statisticians used the right sources. We’re entrusted to do much better in this century, and we must collectively muster the wisdom and patience to weave the century through before we witness our own demise.

The future as it relates to World politics and events is much like the Stock market: it is the result of collective actions and fears and expectations of everyone, and there are too many events and accidents to predict. Best to hedge whenever possible and look at all alternatives and try to navigate through the options while correcting always when the unexpected happens.

Imad F Abdullah, July 21, 2016

*2012 Book Author "A Crystal Ball Visioning - Unfolding the 21st century"

Dear Imad,

The added value you brought can't  simply be considered as a layer which
join the other layers of a pyramid, because this is not the case,

we are facing a new kind of war where destructions should proliferate without
end in order to confine the enemy, population are used "comme bouclier",

SYKES-PICOT II is not a duplication of SYKES-PICOT I,

whatever is the president of the United States, the game won't change and the enemy
Russia+China should be neutralized and "le pillage des richesses" should
remain the main target.

Let us forget democracy and human values, some population should be thinned to their max. and what happenned in WWII shall continue,

SIDA & EBOLA are not enough, bombing is not efficient, what is efficient is "l'éclatement de l'intérieur like viruses",

what is happening in Turkey is a good example.

Machiavel is ruling the world, that's why the vision as described in my article should be corrected,

REORGANIZING means OPENNING towards new undiscovered events but these
unpredictible events should comply with a predefined strategy.

How to overcome this Tsunami? perhaps using my theory of "rebuilding new
virtuous cities "en reconstruisant leur tissu social".

In case  you like the idea, please provide a new definition of
"Sykes-Picot" adapted to Uncle Sam strategy considering that Sykes-Picot
I was not a bad idea, but it was just produced by an "allié" GB, who
still remain among the major followers.

II- SYRIA DISMANTLING PROCESS - 040516

CHRONOLIGICAL EVENTS BY Hassan Zineddin: analyzing "why"

Believing that essentially our nowadays bleeding is due to chronological institutional deficiency so the analysis should concentrate on analyzing "why", is it only in internal Syrian governance ability or as well other factors should be taken in account...

For this I suggest work on two time platforms

- From the end of the Ottoman rule till 2011 (the start of the turmoil)

- From 2011 till now

From the end of the ottoman rule till 2011

• From the end of the ottoman rule till 1948

• • The - Sykes-Picot demographic surgical intervention factor
  • The English-French protectorate factor (till the independence from the French one)
  • The Syrian-Israeli factor
• From 1948 till 1967
  • From Syrian self-rule to the union with Egypt 1958
  • From 1958 to 1967 major defeat

• From 1967 to 1977 (President Sadat in Tel Aviv)
  • From 1967 to 1973 (post defeat state of mind)
  • From 1973 to 1977 (Sadat-Assad political farewell)
• From 1977 to the 1982 (Israeli invasion of Beirut)
  • From 1977 to 1978 (Camp David accord)
  • From 1978 to 1979 (Iranian revolution's coincidental answer to camp David)
  • From 1979 to 1981 (Iran-Iraq war and the destruction of Iraq nuclear reactor)

• • From 1981 to 1982 (the second - after the Palestinian -  emergence of Lebanese wide spectrum civil resistance logic)
• From 1982 to 1993 (Oslo accords)
  • From 1982 to 1987 (the emergence of Intifada logic)
  • From 1982 to 1991 (Madrid peace conference)
  • From 1991 to 1993 (Arafat-Assad political farewell)

• From 1993 to 2005 (Rafic Hariri's assassination and the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon)
• From 2005 to 2011
  • From 2005 to 2006 (Hezbollah-Israeli 33 days war and Syria role in it)
  • From 2006 to 2008 (Sarkozy's invitation to Bashar Assad!!!)
  • From 2008 to 2009 (December 2008- January 2009 Gaza war)
  • From 2009 to 2011 (the development of "Arab spring")

From 2011 till now

• The Turkish territorial ambitions
• Russia - Iran growing presence
• The gulf assigned role in the region (Qatar and Saudi Arabia especially under the actual leadership)
• The impact of on going Yemen war
  

Sykes Picot II – Is the process of Syria partition irreversible?

When the first partition of Syria has been planned, it was through dismantling Ottoman Empire after World War I and under the supervision of two superpower France & Great Britain. In 1946 Two states emerges Syria and Lebanon, in 1948 a new state emerges Israel on Palestine territories. But war didn’t stop, in 1967 Israel annexes West Bank, in 1981 Iran and Irak got in war, in 1991 first war launched by USA against Irak and in 2003 the invasion of Irak through a planified war. The real problem emerges when USA withdrew from Irak through no strategy objective and Kurdish state was created in the north without being through a federal scope with Bagdad. In 2012 the revolution in Syria was transformed to a wide conflict of international interests where each involved party has established their affiliated guerrilla. Who are the involved nations? USA indirectly through Saudi Arabia and Turkey , Iran indirectly through Syria Regime and Hezbollah, backed by Russia; The chaos created uncontrolled guerrilla with the emergence of Islamic State who is establishing a durable state, Kurdish army backed by USA is establishing his own state. What could be the future? No possibility of federal state like Germany with Landers structure for instance, because this needs democracy and a direct link to a central government. Syria is now ruined and no way to build a central system, democracy can’t be build without a constitution applied by all parties; but since every civilian and military party is under the control of a foreign godfather with conflictual interests no way to establish dialogue between the different protagonist. So dismantling of Syria is becoming an hypothetical solution. Economically speaking this will ruin Syria and postpone rebuilding process until Syrian citizens awaken from the biggest tragedy since Sykes Picot I (1916).

Amin Elsaleh - March 2016

1rst comment in French

bonjour Amin, à corriger:

la guerre Iraq Iran a débuté en 1980 (pas 1981) et a été précédée ou provoquée par 524 incidents de frontière notifiés par l'Iraq à l'ONU. En 2015, le Gouvernement autonome kurde au Nord de l Iraq n'est pas encore un état, et il a été précédé depuis 1974 par une "région de gouvernement autonome", suite à l'accord dit du Manifeste du 11 mars 1970 entre le gouvernement Irakien et les divers mouvements kurdes.

Ton résumé historique n'évoque pas assez la raison de fond depuis 1905, les pétroles de Mésopotamie, prospectés et cartographiés depuis plus de 120 ans, et reconnus comme les moins chers à produire au monde.

Une étape clé est que vers 1970-71 plusieurs grands producteurs de pétrole ont réclamé le passage à 50% 50% pour les Royalties, y compris l'Iran du Shah (du coup lâché plus tard en 1978-79 par US et UK) et y compris l'Arabie de Sheikh Yamani (du coup assasinat du roi Faysal en 1975). Une fois que l'Iraq baasiste, alors libre de conflits et soutenu par l'URSS, a nationalisé l'IPC le 1 juin 1972, les Major anglo-saxonnes et les USA via Kissinger ont décidé de déstabiliser l'IRAQ (accords secrets de Téhéran en juillet 72, révélés par le rapport de la commission d''enquête du Sénateur US PIKE sur les "covert actions" de la CIA, rapport ayant fuité pour être publié par le journal New-yorkais Village Voice en 1976. Cette déstabilisation de l'Iraq, et le départ provoqué des Russes en Égypte en été 1972, ouvraient ainsi la voix à la guerre d'octobre 73 conçue entre US, Israël et Sadate pour lui donner un petit semblant de victoire, aux dépens de la Syrie, et lui permettre de proposer une paix séparée avec Israël (ref Rapport secret au PolitBuro par Boris Vinogradov alors ambassadeur de l URSS au Caire, cité par l'historien antisioniste Israël Shamir)

cordialement A ST Saturnin Bernard CORNUT auteur, géopolitique et histoire, polytechnicien, ingénieur civil du Génie rural, Eaux et Forêts, 14 ans de résidence en 6 pays de l'ex Empire Ottoman,expert efficacité énergétique et environnement.

2nd comment

Dear Amin, dear friends

I've gone through the other contributions which addressed the issue from different historical comparative analytical angles which contain a lot of points open to dispute (for or against) which makes it difficult to draw a final synthesis, which is quite normal in a typical brain storming forum

I'll try something else, another approach based on what alternative we are facing... and what would happen in each oh these alternatives, which are only (repeat) only two: Whether the main structure of the actual Syrian regime hold (even with a broader loyal-opposition government, topped by president Bashar El Assad who'll continue to call the shots) or if this regime collapses. I'll start with the second assumption (the regime collapses) and here I'll not only agree with most pessimistic prognostics but even more which could even exceed any imagination, and this leads us to the other assumption : what'll happen if not ? Let's not forget that the main triggering element to any house of cards (through the realization of the "famous" big Middle East project through the famous creative chaos) is the Kurdish card (reason why the American supported them against all their closest regional allies (Turkey, and all the Gulf States - excluding Oman) So if the regime hold Bashar El Assad will never take any solution which exceed some form of administrative and cultural leverage under a strong central administration, and the same will likely to apply in the other two states Turkey and Iran, leaving to the only realistic potential (which is not more of a potential in spite of all appearances) no chance to create a viable independent - even partially - entity, and this for a many mainly geographic reasons (access, sea ports...) on the other hand we should not forget that a large part of the Syrian Kurds are against this orientation This is mainly why the flag holders of the

creative chaos

insist on the departure of President Assad

Conclusion:

the big Middle East project, which failed one and again will also fail now... even if the Russian Federation changes heart, (which I don't think right now even if I'll keep watching) because the key solution - against those who give an exagerated role to the that of the superpower - belong to the region Hassan Zineddin-18 march 2016

RELATED ISSUE -

Arab expulsion from parliament

http://www.mlfcham.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1650:the-expulsion-from-parliament&catid=272:palestine&Itemid=2188

Please read very carefully this article written by Omri Boehm: The Israeli philosopher, he is a professor at the New School for Social Research in New York. The article written for Die Zeit is translated in English since most of our readers don't read German, please accept my excuse if the translation is not accurate. The subject is worthy to be handled since the civil war in Syria is hiding a long term strategy behind the second round of Sykes Picot and explicitly analysed by our stochastic model step by step. This article is trying to consolidate the theory through new evidence and a new trigger which lead us to the expected convergence of the model. Hope is still there but science is the unique instrument to overcome the coming tsunami.

Omri Boehm  - April 2016

Historical Background

Le jour où la France a donné un bout de Syrie à la Turquie par Ariane Bonzon

http://www.mlfcham.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1372:le-jour-ou-la-france-a-donne-un-bout-de-syrie-a-la-turquie-par-ariane-bonzon&catid=294:syrie&Itemid=1894

PREVIOUS Editor's Notes

I- The stochastic model is now convergent

"Having no strategy(1)" is by itself a strategy . Objective: Dismantling Syria after Irak.

(1) President Obama first declaration is followed few weeks later with a clearer one " having no complete strategy"  at G7 meeting.

Starting date for the process of dismantling Syria:28 october 2008, three years before the "Arab Spring".

Analysis and comments

French Source[1],

Une intervention préparée par l'OTAN - Canard enchaîné du mercredi 23 novembre 2011

http://mlfcham.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1024:une-intervention-preparee-par-lotan-canard-enchaine-du-mercredi-23-novembre-2011&catid=269:syrie&Itemid=1490

http://mlfcham.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=87:attaque-americaine-en-syrie-des-forces-hors-controle-&catid=273:vision&Itemid=74

Une intervention préparée par l'OTAN - Canard enchaîné du mercredi 23 novembre 2011

End of update 30 september 2015

REMINDER

8 march 2014 we started a generalized model which is

permanently updated according to new "triggers". The reader may realize that there is no fiction in

the so-called "Sykes Picot Map". Should human brain anticipate next conflict events and provide right solutions

to resolve them? This depends on his level of Morality. A valuable work has been performed by an anthropolog:

Monica Heintz – Studying morality in anthropology: I- What is ‘morality’? II- Universalism versus Cultural Relativism III

- The Question of Freedom in anthropological research IV- Conclusion- Comment "My own perception" by Amin Elsaleh

This might help decision makers to correct their anticipation of current worldwide conflicts resolution and avoid those

triggers who might be possibly generated by the stochastic model after a certain number of successful iterations where false

convergence could no more be considered as a possible issue:

http://mlfcham.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1511:stochastic-model-and-worldwide-

conflict-resolution&catid=354:editos-2014&Itemid=2043

A model is elaborated by Amin Elsaleh to verify field events since March 2014 within the scope of war games theory, the objective is to  predict Syria's conflict resolution despite the growing casualities of Syrian population, which is world's most important atrocity after the second world war:

Stochastic Model and Worldwide Conflict Resolution: Using "Big Data" concept to Predict the World’s Next Atrocity - Case of Syria

LAST ADDED PARAGRAPH

IV-⁠9-⁠6 High Frequent adjustment and revision With increasing Risk of
false Convergence or Possible long term convergence by the end of
Summer 2015

PART XI

What Should We Do if the Islamic State Wins?

BY STEPHEN M. WALT

EXTRACT: "

Despite its bloodthirsty and gruesome tactics, the Islamic State is not, in fact, a powerful global actor. Its message attracts recruits among marginalized youth in other countries, but attracting perhaps 25,000 ill-trained followers from a global population of more than 7 billion is not that significant. It may even be a net gain if these people leave their countries of origin and then get to experience the harsh realities of jihadi rule."https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/10/what-should-we-do-if-isis-islamic-state-wins-containment/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Flashpoints&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign

PART X

Now the truth emerges: how the US fuelled the rise of Isis in Syria and Iraq

Seumas Milne

Wednesday 3 June 2015 20.56 BST

The sectarian terror group won’t be defeated by the western states that incubated it in the first place

"In reality, US and western policy in the conflagration that is now the Middle East is in the classic mould of imperial divide-and-rule. American forces bomb one set of rebels while backing another in Syria, and mount what are effectively joint military operations with Iran against Isis in Iraq while supporting Saudi Arabia’s military campaign against Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen.However confused US policy may often be, a weak, partitioned Iraq and Syria fit such an approach perfectly.

What’s clear is that Isis and its monstrosities won’t be defeated by the same powers that brought it to Iraq and Syria in the first place, or whose open and covert war-making has fostered it in the years since. Endless western military interventions in the Middle East have brought only destruction and division. It’s the people of the region who can cure this disease – not those who incubated the virus.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/03/us-isis-syria-iraq

II- LA RÉSISTANCE PAR LE PROJET DE VILLES VERTUEUSES

Préanbule

Tout s'accélère et nous devons chercher l'information dans des analyses qui nous projettent dans l'avenir.

"stochastic model" est mis à jour grâce aux "triggers" suivants :

"la bataille d'Aden" , la bataille du Kalamoun (Syrie) , l'occupation de Ramadi, l'occupation de Palmyre,

la possible occupation de Hassakeh, tout cela dans l'attente de la signature de l'accord nucléaire avec l'Iran,

l'enlisement sur le terrain à l'est de l'Ukraine et l'intensification des combats;  le renforcement du partenariat Chine-Russie peuvent être aussi catalyseurs du prochain  "trigger".

Le modèle commence à fournir des résultats tangibles produits par les dernières itérations en mode accéléré;

par une nième itération qui pourrait se dérouler cet été; les 2 liens qui suivent nous fournissent une synthèse

nécessaire à anticiper l'avenir du Grand Moyen Orient dessiné par les EU depuis les années 80 (date de la guerre

IRAN - IRAK) et en cours d'exécution dans un univers chaotique; mais d'autres liens sont signalés lors de la

mise à jour semi-hebdomadaire du modèle stochastique.

LE PROJET DE VILLES VERTUEUSES

The 15 april 2015, we submitted to a symposium on Globalization and editorial content a project on knowledge Networks and virtuous cities rebuilding:

http://mlfcham.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1600:la-thematique-l-reseaux-de-connaissances-r-quel-type-de-projets-sy-inscrivent-&catid=334:amin-elsaleh-contributions&Itemid=2138

in which we provide a healthy and moral approach to  overcome arab world disintegration.

L'APPROCHE HISTORIQUE ENTRE HÉRITAGE ET LA NOUVELLE STRATÉGIE

Sykes Picot Map

https://www.google.com/search?q=sykes+picot+map&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&s

مخطط "برنارد لويس" لتفتيت العالم العربي

بقلم م. فتحي شهاب الدين

الذين لم يقرءوا التاريخ يظنون ما صنعته أمريكا بالعراق من احتلال وتقسيم أمرًا مفاجئًا جاء وليد الأحداث التي أنتجته، وما يحدث الآن في جنوب السودان له دوافع وأسباب، ولكن الحقيقة الكبرى أنهم نسوا أن ما يحدث الآن هو تحقيق وتنفيذ للمخطط الاستعماري الذي خططته وصاغته وأعلنته الصهيونية والصليبية العالمية؛ لتفتيت العالم الإسلامي، وتجزئته وتحويله إلى "فسيفساء ورقية" يكون فيه الكيان الصهيوني السيد المطاع، وذلك منذ إنشاء هذا الكيان الصهيوني على أرض فلسطين 1948م، وعندما ننشر هذه الوثيقة الخطيرة لـ"برنارد لويس" فإننا نهدف إلى تعريف المسلمين بالمخطط، وخاصة الشباب الذين هم عماد الأمة وصانعو قوتها وحضارتها ونهضتها، والذين تعرضوا لأكبر عملية "غسيل مخ" يقوم بها فريق يعمل بدأب؛ لخدمة المشروع الصهيوني الأمريكي لوصم تلك المخططات بأنها مجرد "نظرية مؤامرة" رغم ما نراه رأي العين ماثلاً أمامنا من حقائق في فلسطين والعراق والسودان وأفغانستان، والبقية آتية لا ريب إذا غفلنا.

وحتى لا ننسى ما حدث لنا وما يحدث الآن وما سوف يحدث في المستقبل، فيكون دافعًا لنا على العمل والحركة؛ لوقف الطوفان القادم

برنارد لويس

برنارد لويس

"برنارد لويس" من هو؟

* العراب الصهيوني.

* أعدى أعداء الإسلام على وجه الأرض.

* حيي بن أخطب العصر الحديث، والذي قاد الحملة ضد الإسلام ونبي الإسلام، وخرج بوفد يهود المدينة؛ ليحرض الجزيرة العربية كلها على قتال المسلمين والتخلص من رسولهم.

* صاحب أخطر مشروع في هذا القرن لتفتيت العالم العربي والإسلامي من باكستان إلى المغرب، والذي نشرته مجلة وزارة الدفاع الأمريكية.

ولد "برنارد لويس" في لندن عام 1916م، وهو مستشرق بريطاني الأصل، يهودي الديانة، صهيوني الانتماء، أمريكي الجنسية.

تخرَّج في جامعة لندن 1936م، وعمل فيها مدرس في قسم التاريخ للدراسات الشرقية الإفريقية،

كتب "لويس" كثيرًا، وتداخل في تاريخ الإسلام والمسلمين؛ حيث اعتبر مرجعًا فيه، فكتب عن كلِّ ما يسيء للتاريخ الإسلامي متعمدًا، فكتب عن الحشاشين، وأصول الإسماعيلية، والناطقة، والقرامطة، وكتب في التاريخ الحديث نازعًا النزعة الصهيونية التي يصرح بها ويؤكدها.

نشرت صحيفة "وول ستريت جورنال" مقالاً قالت فيه:

إن برنارد لويس "90 عامًا" المؤرخ البارز للشرق الأوسط وقد وَفَّرَ الكثير من الذخيرة الإيدلوجية لإدارة بوش في قضايا الشرق الأوسط والحرب على الإرهاب؛ حتى إنه يُعتبر بحقٍّ منظرًا لسياسة التدخل والهيمنة الأمريكية في المنطقة.

قالت نفس الصحيفة إن لويس قدَّم تأيدًا واضحًا للحملات الصليبية الفاشلة، وأوضح أن الحملات الصليبية على بشاعتها كانت رغم ذلك ردًّا مفهومًا على الهجوم الإسلامي خلال القرون السابقة، وأنه من السخف الاعتذار عنها.

رغم أن مصطلح "صدام الحضارات" يرتبط بالمفكر المحافظ "صموئيل هنتينجتون" فإن "لويس" هو مَن قدَّم التعبير أولاً إلى الخطاب العام، ففي كتاب "هنتينجتون" الصادر في 1996م يشير المؤلف إلى فقرة رئيسية في مقال كتبها "لويس" عام 1990م بعنوان جذور الغضب الإسلامي، قال فيها: "هذا ليس أقل من صراع بين الحضارات، ربما تكون غير منطقية، لكنها بالتأكيد رد فعل تاريخي منافس قديم لتراثنا اليهودي والمسيحي، وحاضرنا العلماني، والتوسع العالمي لكليهما".

طوَّر "لويس" روابطه الوثيقة بالمعسكر السياسي للمحافظين الجدد في الولايات المتحدة منذ سبعينيات القرن العشرين؛ حيث يشير "جريشت" من معهد العمل الأمريكي إلى أن لويس ظلَّ طوال سنوات "رجل الشئون العامة"، كما كان مستشارًا لإدارتي بوش الأب والابن.

في 1 /5 /2006م ألقى "ديك تشيني" نائب الرئيس "بوش الابن" خطابًا يكرِّم فيه "لويس" في مجلس الشئون العالمية في فيلادلفيا؛ حيث ذكر "تشيني" أن لويس قد جاء إلى واشنطن ليكون مستشارًا لوزير الدفاع لشئون الشرق الأوسط.

لويس الأستاذ المتقاعد بجامعة "برنستون" ألَّف 20 كتابًا عن الشرق الأوسط من بينها "العرب في التاريخ" و "الصدام بين الإسلام والحداثة في الشرق الأوسط الحديث" و"أزمة الإسلام" و"حرب مندسة وإرهاب غير مقدس".

لم يقف دور برنارد لويس عند استنفار القيادة في القارتين الأمريكية والأوروبية، وإنما تعدَّاه إلى القيام بدور العراب الصهيوني الذي صاغ للمحافظين الجدد في إدارة الرئيس بوش الابن إستراتيجيتهم في العداء الشديد للإسلام والمسلمين، وقد شارك لويس في وضع إستراتيجية الغزو الأمريكي للعراق؛ حيث ذكرت الصحيفة الأمريكية أن "لويس" كان مع الرئيس بوش الابن ونائبه تشيني، خلال اختفاء الاثنين على إثر حادثة ارتطام الطائرة بالمركز الاقتصادي العالمي، وخلال هذه الاجتماعات ابتدع لويس للغزو مبرراته وأهدافه التي ضمَّنها في مقولات "صراع الحضارات" و"الإرهاب الإسلامي".

في مقابلة أجرتها وكالة الإعلام مع "لويس" في 20/5/2005م قال الآتي بالنص: "إن العرب والمسلمين قوم فاسدون مفسدون فوضويون، لا يمكن تحضرهم، وإذا تُرِكوا لأنفسهم فسوف يفاجئون العالم المتحضر بموجات بشرية إرهابية تدمِّر الحضارات، وتقوِّض المجتمعات، ولذلك فإن الحلَّ السليم للتعامل معهم هو إعادة احتلالهم واستعمارهم، وتدمير ثقافتهم الدينية وتطبيقاتها الاجتماعية، وفي حال قيام أمريكا بهذا الدور فإن عليها أن تستفيد من التجربة البريطانية والفرنسية في استعمار المنطقة؛ لتجنُّب الأخطاء والمواقف السلبية التي اقترفتها الدولتان، إنه من الضروري إعادة تقسيم الأقطار العربية والإسلامية إلى وحدات عشائرية وطائفية، ولا داعي لمراعاة خواطرهم أو التأثر بانفعالاتهم وردود الأفعال عندهم، ويجب أن يكون شعار أمريكا في ذلك، إما أن نضعهم تحت سيادتنا، أو ندعهم ليدمروا حضارتنا، ولا مانع عند إعادة احتلالهم أن تكون مهمتنا المعلنة هي تدريب شعوب المنطقة على الحياة الديمقراطية، وخلال هذا الاستعمار الجديد لا مانع أن تقدم أمريكا بالضغط على قيادتهم الإسلامية- دون مجاملة ولا لين ولا هوادة- ليخلصوا شعوبهم من المعتقدات الإسلامية الفاسدة، ولذلك يجب تضييق الخناق على هذه الشعوب ومحاصرتها، واستثمار التناقضات العرقية، والعصبيات القبلية والطائفية فيها، قبل أن تغزو أمريكا وأوروبا لتدمر الحضارة فيها".

انتقد "لويس" محاولات الحل السلمي، وانتقد الانسحاب الصهيوني من جنوب لبنان، واصفًا هذا الانسحاب بأنه عمل متسرِّع ولا مبرر له، فالكيان الصهيوني يمثل الخطوط الأمامية للحضارة الغربية، وهي تقف أمام الحقد الإسلامي الزائف نحو الغرب الأوروبي والأمريكي، ولذلك فإن على الأمم الغربية أن تقف في وجه هذا الخطر البربري دون تلكُّؤ أو قصور، ولا داعي لاعتبارات الرأي العام العالمي، وعندما دعت أمريكا عام 2007م إلى مؤتمر "أنابوليس" للسلام كتب لويس في صحيفة "وول ستريت" يقول:

"يجب ألا ننظر إلى هذا المؤتمر ونتائجه إلا باعتباره مجرد تكتيك موقوت، غايته تعزيز التحالف ضد الخطر الإيراني، وتسهيل تفكيك الدول العربية والإسلامية، ودفع الأتراك والأكراد والعرب والفلسطينيين والإيرانيين ليقاتل بعضهم بعضًا، كما فعلت أمريكا مع الهنود الحمر من قبل".

"بريجنسكي" مستشار الأمن القومي الأمريكي

بريجسكي

مشروع برنارد لويس لتقسيم الدول العربية والإسلامية، والذي اعتمدته الولايات المتحدة لسياستها المستقبلية:

1- في عام 1980م والحرب العراقية الإيرانية مستعرة صرح مستشار الأمن القومي الأمريكي "بريجنسكي" بقوله: "إن المعضلة التي ستعاني منها الولايات المتحدة من الآن (1980م) هي كيف يمكن تنشيط حرب خليجية ثانية تقوم على هامش الخليجية الأولى التي حدثت بين العراق وإيران تستطيع أمريكا من خلالها تصحيح حدود "سايكس- بيكو".

2- عقب إطلاق هذا التصريح وبتكليف من وزارة الدفاع الأمريكية "البنتاجون" بدأ المؤرخ الصهيوني المتأمرك "برنارد لويس" بوضع مشروعه الشهير الخاص بتفكيك الوحدة الدستورية لمجموعة الدول العربية والإسلامية جميعًا كلا على حدة، ومنها العراق وسوريا ولبنان ومصر والسودان وإيران وتركيا وأفغانستان وباكستان والسعودية ودول الخليج ودول الشمال الإفريقي.. إلخ، وتفتيت كل منها إلى مجموعة من الكانتونات والدويلات العرقية والدينية والمذهبية والطائفية، وقد أرفق بمشروعه المفصل مجموعة من الخرائط المرسومة تحت إشرافه تشمل جميع الدول العربية والإسلامية المرشحة للتفتيت بوحي من مضمون تصريح "بريجنسكي" مستشار الأمن القومي في عهد الرئيس "جيمي".

جيمي كارتر- الرئيس الأسبق لأمريكا

جيمي كارتر

"كارتر" الخاص بتسعير حرب خليجية ثانية تستطيع الولايات المتحدة من خلالها تصحيح حدود سايكس بيكو بحيث يكون هذا التصحيح متسقا مع الصالح الصهيو أمريكي.

3- في عام 1983م وافق الكونجرس الأمريكي بالإجماع في جلسة سرية على مشروع الدكتور "برنارد لويس"، وبذلك تمَّ تقنين هذا المشروع واعتماده وإدراجه في ملفات السياسة الأمريكية الإستراتيجية لسنوات مقبلة.

تفاصيل المشروع الصهيوأمريكي لتفتيت العالم الإسلامي "لبرنارد لويس"

خريطة مصر والسودان

مصر والسودان

1- مصر

4 دويلات

1- سيناء وشرق الدلتا:

"تحت النفوذ اليهودي" (ليتحقق حلم اليهود من النيل إلى الفرات).

2- الدولة النصرانية:

* عاصمتها الإسكندرية.

* ممتدة من جنوب بني سويف حتى جنوب أسيوط واتسعت غربًا لتضم الفيوم وتمتد في خط صحراوي عبر وادي النطرون ليربط هذه المنطقة بالإسكندرية.

* وقد اتسعت لتضم أيضًا جزءًا من المنطقة الساحلية الممتدة حتى مرسى مطروح.

3- دولة النوبة:

* المتكاملة مع الأراضي الشمالية السودانية.

* عاصمتها أسوان.

* تربط الجزء الجنوبي الممتد من صعيد مصر حتى شمال السودان باسم بلاد النوبة بمنطقة الصحراء الكبرى لتلتحم مع دولة البربر التي سوف تمتد من جنوب المغرب حتى البحر الأحمر.

4- مصر الإسلامية:

* عاصمتها القاهرة.

* الجزء المتبقي من مصر.

* يراد لها أن تكون أيضًا تحت النفوذ الإسرائيلي (حيث تدخل في نطاق إسرائيل الكبرى التي يطمع اليهود في إنشائها).

2- السودان

انظر الخريطة السابقة (خريطة تقسيم مصر والسودان).

4 دويلات

1- دويلة النوبة: المتكاملة مع دويلة النوبة في الأراضي المصرية التي عاصمتها أسوان.

2- دويلة الشمال السوداني الإسلامي:

3- دويلة الجنوب السوداني المسيحي: وهي التي سوف تعلن انفصالها في الاستفتاء المزمع عمله ليكون أول فصل رسمي طبقًا للمخطط.

4- دارفور: والمؤامرات مستمرة لفصلها عن السودان بعد الجنوب مباشرة حيث إنها غنية باليورانيوم والذهب والبترول.

3- دول الشمال الإفريقي

حريطة شمال أفريقيا

تفكيك ليبيا والجزائر والمغرب بهدف إقامة:

1- دولة البربر: على امتداد دويلة النوبة بمصر والسودان.

2- دويلة البوليساريو.

3- الباقي دويلات المغرب والجزائر وتونس وليبيا.

4- شبه الجزيرة العربية (والخليج)

خريطة شبه الجزيرة العربية والخليج

- إلغاء الكويت وقطر والبحرين وسلطنة عمان واليمن والإمارات العربية من الخارطة ومحو وجودها الدستوري بحيث تتضمن شبه الجزيرة والخليج ثلاث دويلات فقط.

1- دويلة الإحساء الشيعية: (وتضم الكويت والإمارات وقطر وعمان والبحرين).

2- دويلة نجد السنية.

3- دويلة الحجاز السنية.

5- العراق

تفكيك العراق على أسس عرقية ودينية ومذهبية على النحو الذي حدث في سوريا في عهد العثمانيين.

3 دويلات

1- دويلة شيعية في الجنوب حول البصرة.

2- دويلة سنية في وسط العراق حول بغداد.

3- دويلة كردية في الشمال والشمال الشرقي حول الموصل (كردستان) تقوم على أجزاء من الأراضي العراقية والإيرانية والسورية والتركية والسوفيتية (سابقًا).

خريطة سوريا العراق

ملاحظة:(صوّت مجلس الشيوخ الأمريكي كشرط انسحاب القوات الأمريكية من العراق في 29/9/2007 على تقسيم العراق إلى ثلاث دويلات المذكور أعلاه وطالب مسعود برزاني بعمل استفتاء لتقرير مصير إقليم كردستان العراق واعتبار عاصمته محافظة (كركوك) الغنية بالنفط محافظة كردية ونال مباركة عراقية وأمريكية في أكتوبر 2010 والمعروف أن دستور "بريمر" وحلفائه من العراقيين قد أقر الفيدرالية التي تشمل الدويلات الثلاث على أسس طائفية: شيعية في (الجنوب)/ سنية في (الوسط)/ كردية في (الشمال)، عقب احتلال العراق في مارس-أبريل 2003).

6- سوريا

انظر الخريطة السابقة (خريطة تقسيم سوريا والعراق)

تقسيمها إلى أقاليم متمايزة عرقيًّا أو دينيًّا أو مذهبيًّا

4- دويلات

1- دولة علوية شيعية (على امتداد الشاطئ).

2- دولة سنية في منطقة حلب.

3- دولة سنية حول دمشق.

4- دولة الدروز في الجولان ولبنان (الأراضي الجنوبية السورية وشرق الأردن والأراضي اللبنانية).

7- لبنان

خريطة لبنان

تقسيم لبنان إلى ثمانية كانتونات عرقية ومذهبية ودينية:

1- دويلة سنية في الشمال (عاصمتها طرابلس).

2- دويلة مارونية شمالاً (عاصمتها جونيه).

3- دويلة سهل البقاع العلوية (عاصمتها بعلبك) خاضعة للنفوذ السوري شرق لبنان.

4- بيروت الدولية (المدوّلة)

5- كانتون فلسطيني حول صيدا وحتى نهر الليطاني تسيطر عليه منظمة التحرير الفلسطينية (م.ت.ف)

6- كانتون كتائبي في الجنوب والتي تشمل مسيحيين ونصف مليون من الشيعة.

7- دويلة درزية (في أجزاء من الأراضي اللبنانية والسورية والفلسطينية المحتلة).

8- كانتون مسيحي تحت النفوذ الإسرائيلي.

تقسيم إيران وباكستان وأفغانستان

8- إيران وباكستان وأفغانستان

تقسيمها إلى عشرة كيانات عرقية ضعيفة:

1- كردستان.

2- أذربيجان.

3- تركستان.

4- عربستان.

5- إيرانستان (ما بقي من إيران بعد التقسيم).

6- بوخونستان.

7- بلونستان.

8- أفغانستان (ما بقي منها بعد التقسيم).

9- باكستان (ما بقي منها بعد التقسيم).

10- كشمير.

9- تركيا

انتزاع جزء منها وضمه للدولة الكردية المزمع إقامتها في العراق.

10- الأردن

تصفية الأردن ونقل السلطة للفلسطينيين.

11- فلسطين

خريطة إسرائيل الكبرى

ابتلاعها بالكامل وهدم مقوماتها وإبادة شعبها.

خريطة إسرائيل الكبرى

خريطة إسرائيل الكبرى

12- اليمن

إزالة الكيان الدستوري الحالي للدولة اليمنية بشطريها الجنوبي والشمالي واعتبار مجمل أراضيها جزءًا من دويلة الحجاز.

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* اتفاقية سايكس- بيكو 1916 وفيها تم اقتسام ما تبقى من المشرق العربي عقب الحرب العالمية الأولى بين إنجلترا وفرنسا والذي أعقبها وعد بلفور 1917 لليهود في فلسطين
* جيمي كارتر حَكَمَ أمريكا منذ (1977- 1981) وفي عهده تم وضع مشروع التفكيك، وهو قس داهية يعتمد السياسة الناعمة وهو الآن يجوب الدول العربية والإسلامية بحجة تحقيق الديمقراطية ونشر السلام في المنطقة!!!

http://gzafree.blogspot.com/2011/01/blog-post_6614.html